Derivation and validation of novel integrated inpatient mortality prediction score for COVID-19 (IMPACT) using clinical, laboratory, and AI-processed radiological parameter upon admission: a multicentre study.

Limited studies explore the use of AI for COVID-19 prognostication. This study investigates the relationship between AI-aided radiographic parameters, clinical and laboratory data, and mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. We conducted a multicentre retrospective study. The derivation and validation cohort comprised of 512 and 137 confirmed COVID-19 patients, respectively. Variable selection for constructing an in-hospital mortality scoring model was performed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, followed by logistic regression. The accuracy of the scoring model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The final model included eight variables: anosmia (OR: 0.280; 95%CI 0.095-0.826), dyspnoea (OR: 1.684; 95%CI 1.049-2.705), loss of consciousness (OR: 4.593; 95%CI 1.702-12.396), mean arterial pressure (OR: 0.928; 95%CI 0.900-0.957), peripheral oxygen saturation (OR: 0.981; 95%CI 0.967-0.996), neutrophil % (OR: 1.034; 95%CI 1.013-1.055), serum urea (OR: 1.018; 95%CI 1.010-1.026), affected lung area score (OR: 1.026; 95%CI 1.014-1.038). The Integrated Inpatient Mortality Prediction Score for COVID-19 (IMPACT) demonstrated a predictive value of 0.815 (95% CI 0.774-0.856) in the derivation cohort. Internal validation resulted in an AUROC of 0.770 (95% CI 0.661-0.879). Our study provides valuable evidence of the real-world application of AI in clinical settings. However, it is imperative to conduct prospective validation of our findings, preferably utilizing a control group and extending the application to broader populations.

Hemodynamic, Oxygenation and Lymphocyte Parameters Predict COVID-19 Mortality.

The mortality of COVID-19 patients has left the world devastated. Many scoring systems have been developed to predict the mortality of COVID-19 patients, but several scoring components cannot be carried out in limited health facilities. Herein, the authors attempted to create a new and easy scoring system involving mean arterial pressure (MAP), PF Ratio, or SF ratio-respiration rate (SF Ratio-R), and lymphocyte absolute, which were abbreviated as MPL or MSLR functioning, as a predictive scoring system for mortality within 30 days for COVID-19 patients. Of 132 patients with COVID-19 hospitalized between March and November 2021, we followed up on 96 patients. We present bivariate and multivariate analyses as well as the area under the curve (AUC) and Kaplan-Meier charts. From 96 patients, we obtained an MPL score of 3 points: MAP < 75 mmHg, PF Ratio < 200, and lymphocyte absolute < 1500/µL, whereas the MSLR score was 6 points: MAP < 75 mmHg, SF Ratio < 200, lymphocyte absolute < 1500/µL, and respiration rate 24/min. The MPL cut-off point is 2, while the MSLR is 4. MPL and MSLR have the same sensitivity (79.1%) and specificity (75.5%). The AUC value of MPL vs. MSLR was 0.802 vs. 0.807. The MPL ≥ 2 and MSLR ≥ 4 revealed similar predictions for survival within 30 days (p < 0.05). Conclusion: MPL and MSLR scores are potential predictors of mortality in COVID-19 patients within 30 days in a resource-limited country.

Predictive Value of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, and New Early Warning Signs Scores Estimate Mortality of COVID-19 Patients Requiring Intensive Care Unit.

Introduction: Various mortality predictive score models for coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) have been deliberated. We studied how sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), and new early warning signs (NEWS-2) scores estimate mortality in COVID-19 patients. Materials and methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study of 53 patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19. We calculated qSOFA, SOFA, APACHE II, and NEWS-2 on initial admission and re-evaluated on day 5. We performed logistic regression analysis to differentiate the predictors of qSOFA, SOFA, APACHE II, and NEWS-2 scores on mortality. Result: qSOFA, SOFA, APACHE II, and NEWS-2 scores on day 5 exhibited a difference between survivors and nonsurvivors (p <0.05), also between ICU and non-ICU admission (p <0.05). The initial NEWS-2 revealed a higher AUC value than the qSOFA, APACHE II, and SOFA score in estimating mortality (0.867; 0.83; 0.822; 0.794). In ICU, APACHE II score revealed a higher AUC value than the SOFA, NEWS-2, and qSOFA score (0.853; 0.832; 0.813; 0.809). Concurrently, evaluation on day 5 showed that qSOFA AUC had higher scores than the NEWS-2, APACHE II, and SOFA (0.979; 0.965; 0.939; 0.933) in predicting mortality, while SOFA and APACHE II AUC were higher in ICU admission than NEWS-2 and qSOFA (0.968; 0.964; 0.939; 0.934). According to the cutoff score, APACHE II on day 5 revealed the highest sensitivity and specificity in predicting the mortality (sensitivity 95.7%, specificity 86.7%). Conclusion: All scores signify good predictive values on COVID-19 patients mortality following the evaluation on the day 5. Nonetheless, APACHE-II appears to be the best at predicting mortality and ICU admission rate. How to cite this article: Asmarawati TP, Suryantoro SD, Rosyid AN, Marfiani E, Windradi C, Mahdi BA, et al. Predictive Value of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, and New Early Warning Signs Scores Estimate Mortality of COVID-19 Patients Requiring Intensive Care Unit. Indian J Crit Care Med 2022;26(4):464-471.

An in vitro study of dual drug combinations of anti-viral agents, antibiotics, and/or hydroxychloroquine against the SARS-CoV-2 virus isolated from hospitalized patients in Surabaya, Indonesia.

A potent therapy for the infectious coronavirus disease COVID-19 is urgently required with, at the time of writing, research in this area still ongoing. This study aims to evaluate the in vitro anti-viral activities of combinations of certain commercially available drugs that have recently formed part of COVID-19 therapy. Dual combinatory drugs, namely; Lopinavir-Ritonavir (LOPIRITO)-Clarithromycin (CLA), LOPIRITO-Azithromycin (AZI), LOPIRITO-Doxycycline (DOXY), Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ)-AZI, HCQ-DOXY, Favipiravir (FAVI)-AZI, HCQ-FAVI, and HCQ-LOPIRITO, were prepared. These drugs were mixed at specific ratios and evaluated for their safe use based on the cytotoxicity concentration (CC50) values of human umbilical cord mesenchymal stem cells. The anti-viral efficacy of these combinations in relation to Vero cells infected with SARS-CoV-2 virus isolated from a patient in Universitas Airlangga hospital, Surabaya, Indonesia and evaluated for IC50 24, 48, and 72 hours after viral inoculation was subsequently determined. Observation of the viral load in qRT-PCR was undertaken, the results of which indicated the absence of high levels of cytotoxicity in any samples and that dual combinatory drugs produced lower cytotoxicity than single drugs. In addition, these combinations demonstrated considerable effectiveness in reducing the copy number of the virus at 48 and 72 hours, while even at 24 hours, post-drug incubation resulted in low IC50 values. Most combination drugs reduced pro-inflammatory markers, i.e. IL-6 and TNF-α, while increasing the anti-inflammatory response of IL-10. According to these results, the descending order of effective dual combinatory drugs is one of LOPIRITO-AZI>LOPIRITO-DOXY>HCQ-AZI>HCQ-FAVI>LOPIRITO-CLA>HCQ-DOX. It can be suggested that dual combinatory drugs, e.g. LOPIRITO-AZI, can potentially be used in the treatment of COVID-19 infectious diseases.

The clinical impact of bacterial co-infection among moderate, severe and critically ill COVID-19 patients in the second referral hospital in Surabaya.

Background: Data on the prevalence of bacterial co-infections among COVID-19 patients are limited, especially in our country, Indonesia. We aimed to assess the rate of bacterial co-infections in hospitalized COVID-19 patients and report the most common microorganisms involved and the antibiotic use in these patients. Methods: This study is a retrospective cohort study, among COVID-19 adult patients admitted to Universitas Airlangga Hospital Surabaya from 14 March-30 September 2020. The bacterial infection is defined based on clinical assessment, laboratory parameters, and microbiology results. Results: A total of 218 patients with moderate to critical illness and confirmed COVID-19 were included in this study. Bacterial infection was confirmed in 43 patients (19.7%). COVID-19 patients with bacterial infections had longer hospital length of stay (17.6 ± 6.62 vs 13.31±7.12), a higher proportion of respiratory failure, intensive care treatment, and ventilator use. COVID-19 patients with bacterial infection had a worse prognosis than those without bacterial infection (p<0.04). The empirical antibiotic was given to 75.2% of the patients. Gram-negative bacteria were commonly found as causative agents in this study (n = 39; 70.37%). Conclusion: COVID-19 patients with bacterial infection have a longer length of stay and worse outcomes. Healthcare-associated infections during intensive care treatment for COVID-19 patients must be carefully prevented.

A Randomized, Double-Blind, Multicenter Clinical Study Comparing the Efficacy and Safety of a Drug Combination of Lopinavir/Ritonavir-Azithromycin, Lopinavir/Ritonavir-Doxycycline, and Azithromycin-Hydroxychloroquine for Patients Diagnosed with Mild to Moderate COVID-19 Infections.

BACKGROUND: At the present time, COVID-19 vaccines are at the testing stage, and an effective treatment for COVID-19 incorporating appropriate safety measures remains the most significant obstacle to be overcome. A strategic countermeasure is, therefore, urgently required. AIM: This study aims to evaluate the efficacy and safety of a combination of lopinavir/ritonavir-azithromycin, lopinavir/ritonavir-doxycycline, and azithromycin-hydroxychloroquine used to treat patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 infections. Setting and Design. This study was conducted at four different clinical study sites in Indonesia. The subjects gave informed consent for their participation and were confirmed as being COVID-19-positive by means of an RT-PCR test. The present study constituted a randomized, double-blind, and multicenter clinical study of patients diagnosed with mild to moderate COVID-19 infection. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Six treatment groups participated in this study: a Control group administered with a 500 mg dose of azithromycin; Group A which received a 200/50 mg dose of lopinavir/ritonavir and 500 mg of azithromycin; Group B treated with a 200/50 mg dose of lopinavir/ritonavir and 200 mg of doxycycline; Group C administered with 200 mg of hydroxychloroquine and 500 mg of azithromycin; Group D which received a 400/100 mg dose of lopinavir/ritonavir and 500 mg of azithromycin; and Group E treated with a 400/100 mg dose of lopinavir/ritonavir and 200 mg of doxycycline. RESULTS: 754 subjects participated in this study: 694 patients (92.4%) who presented mild symptoms and 57 patients (7.6%) classified as suffering from a moderate case of COVID-19. On the third day after treatment, 91.7%-99.2% of the subjects in Groups A-E were confirmed negative by a PCR swab test compared to 26.9% in the Control group. Observation of all groups which experienced a significant decrease in virus load between day 1 and day 7 was undertaken. Other markers, such as CRP and IL-6, were significantly lower in all treatment groups (p < 0.05 and p < 0.0001) than in the Control group. Furthermore, IL-10 and TNF-α levels were significantly elevated in all treatment groups (p < 0.0001). The administration of azithromycin to the Control group increased CRP and IL-6 levels, while reduced IL-10 and TNF-α on day 7 (p < 0.0001) compared with day 1. Decreases in ALT and AST levels were observed in all groups (p < 0.0001). There was an increase in creatinine in the serum level of the Control, C, D, and E groups (p < 0.05), whereas the BUN level was elevated in all groups (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The study findings suggest that the administration of lopinavir/ritonavir-doxycycline, lopinavir/ritonavir-azithromycin, and azithromycin-hydroxychloroquine as a dual drug combination produced a significantly rapid PCR conversion rate to negative in three-day treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19 cases. Further studies should involve observation of older patients with severe clinical symptoms in order to collate significant amounts of demographic data.